tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post114672818079539641..comments2024-03-25T21:41:06.801-07:00Comments on Mobile Opportunity: Removing the Middleman, Part 3: BooksMichael Macehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-64865434085676609842011-09-28T15:15:41.245-07:002011-09-28T15:15:41.245-07:00As an ebook reader I think that more and more peop...As an ebook reader I think that more and more people are reading ebooks than in the past thanks to the Ipad and some other tablets for many reasons like economy, for instance, but I still love to read an actual book and if it is a little old, I kinda like the smell and to feel the sheets in my hands (I know it sounds weird LOL), but that feeling will not be taken it away by ebooks ever in my opinion. An idea I have and shared with some friends is that most likely...the future of the book marketing will be to sell the original and actual book with a copy in electronic version (PDF) and an audiobook too narrated by the author or a decent book narrator, all on a DVD. I think that it would be very interesting to listen to the words pronounced by the same author of the book and to see if our reading of the words is alike or different.Bitacorahttp://bitacoralinkera.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-44281909106339691022007-08-22T20:13:00.000-07:002007-08-22T20:13:00.000-07:00Michael great article,I believe it would be very d...Michael great article,<BR/><BR/>I believe it would be very difficult to sell eBook's on a per unit basis. I recently read your corresponding article on music. You made the point that while singles sell well on iTunes you believe that whole albums do not. I believe there is a boundary around 1 dollar above which there is a strong reluctance to purchase anything that does not have a physical presence.<BR/><BR/>What I do believe would work well for eBooks is a subscription based model that gives access to an extensive library for a monthly fee. Services would compete for the first runs of bestselling authors. The whole business model would look a lot more like satellite radio or pay TV than traditional publishing. <BR/><BR/>Further down the road there is a need to look at what happens to our public library system. Should these public $$'s go into some sort of online distribution network delivered via municipal WiFi to replace the stone structures.<BR/><BR/>Also with skyrocketing textbook prices and the fact that many go out of date after only one year eBooks might be perfect for students. This would work great if the textbook cost was rolled into the tuition costs and all students had online access to all reading materials for the current semester. This would keep royalties simple as it would be a factor of the number of students enrolled in a given class. Piracy should not be an issue since students would be charged each semester. This should be reason for sunstantial discounting of textbook pricing since everyone pays up instead of large numbers of students buying used textbooks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-26716284833926092872007-05-06T00:24:00.000-07:002007-05-06T00:24:00.000-07:00The Age of Publishing Reformation has begun here b...The Age of Publishing Reformation has begun here by Micheal Mace. Mr Mace, thank you for laying down the bottom line profits for we aspiring writers out there. What a Godsend. Look how does a writer like myself, with a lone book by a POD agency, crack his prospects open with a mainstream publisher. I have submitted several synopsis and queries to agents, but no takers. American Book Publishers wants my latest work, but they are asking for 750.00 USD dollars up front, is that legitimate? Again I am glad you took such painful research to show how the game is played and I too concur that e-books are just not the vogue yet. Best wishes, and I will try to contact you via your email address. Thank you,<BR/>Cole Bolchoz<BR/>author of Dating Bytes: An Average Joe's Guide to Internet Dating! via Publish America 2007.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-34201766153489466332007-01-10T04:03:00.000-08:002007-01-10T04:03:00.000-08:00Hi Mike,
Thank you for the insights. But if a late...Hi Mike,<br />Thank you for the insights. But if a late gen phone came out with more memory, could we not compress a voice file into a smaller size and stream it alongwith the text? <br /><br />Also, now that the iphone is out, what does it mean for mbooks? Or since they will not allow any 3rd party apps at all, there is no opportunity at all?<br />Thanks<br />SamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-72419244407093590432007-01-07T00:47:00.000-08:002007-01-07T00:47:00.000-08:00Hi, Sam.
I have a feeling that the limitation is ...Hi, Sam.<br /><br />I have a feeling that the limitation is the memory and battery life of a mobile device. Speech synthesis is okay on a PC, but even there it can be hard to understand. A PC has tons of storage, a realy fast processor, and is plugged into a wall. A mobile device has none of those advantages, so I have a feeling the speech synthesis on a mobile would be pretty hard to understand.<br /><br />You could do the speech synthesis on a server and stream the spoken words to the mobile device wirelessly, but that would be a very long phone call and you'd still kill the battery.<br /><br />I think the best way to get a book read to you is going to be via podcast, at least for the next several years.Michael Macehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-83210611414478209422007-01-06T05:43:00.000-08:002007-01-06T05:43:00.000-08:00Mike,
What I do not understand is, why cannot Mobi...Mike,<br />What I do not understand is, why cannot Mobipocket (or any other mobile ebook reader) also "read out loud" like an audio book? After all it is a "phone" well designed for audio too, isn't it? The product can be a combination book+tape. Hows the idea?<br />SamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-84775253352100007472007-01-03T10:04:00.000-08:002007-01-03T10:04:00.000-08:00Hmmmm, very interesting, Sam. It looks like the M...Hmmmm, very interesting, Sam. It looks like the Mobipocket purchase was April of 2005, which means that either Amazon just wanted a toehold in electronic book distribution, or it's been working on this ebook device for even longer than I realized.<br /><br />Mobipocket has the same problem that I've seen in other electronic book sites -- they're charging the same prices as the print editions of their electronic books, which is totally unexciting to most users. Not Mobipocket's fault, though -- it's the publishers trying to protect their bookstore channel.Michael Macehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-59722913650024677962007-01-03T03:23:00.000-08:002007-01-03T03:23:00.000-08:00Thank you Mike, for the quick reply. I came across...Thank you Mike, for the quick reply. I came across another mobile content site called Mobipocket. Their reader claims to work on all handhelds and they also have a free publisher and site to sell the book. Have you any info or opinion about them? Also, I think they got acquired by Amazon quite recently.<br />Regards,<br />SamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-47383325866907574622006-12-29T21:14:00.000-08:002006-12-29T21:14:00.000-08:00I think it's a cool idea, Sam.
You should check o...I think it's a cool idea, Sam.<br /><br />You should check out a website called <a href="http://www.memoware.com/">Memoware</a>. It's a repository for a huge array of documents readable on mobile devices. It was very popular among the Palm OS crowd for a time, although I suspect traffic to it has probably dropped off as the enthusiasm around handhelds declined.<br /><br />I think that technical how-tos are a great subject area for electronic books, since that matches the interests of the most likely users. The trick, I think, will be finding a way to publicize the e-books without spending more money than you'll receive for them. That's a problem for a lot of mobile software publishers.<br /><br />Best of luck.Michael Macehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-49087355070754085672006-12-27T05:57:00.000-08:002006-12-27T05:57:00.000-08:00Hi Mike,
I discovered this blog by accident and it...Hi Mike,<br />I discovered this blog by accident and it is far better than the other blogs on mobile content :)<br />I was toying with the idea of small ebooks (m books really) which can be read on a hand held, which are priced low (say $5) and offer technical information --how to do this ... how to do that...kind of stuff.<br />Do you think it is a good idea?<br />SamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1147397385358242722006-05-11T18:29:00.000-07:002006-05-11T18:29:00.000-07:00In my post, I forgot to mention TeleRead, which is...In my post, I forgot to mention <A HREF="http://www.teleread.org/blog/" REL="nofollow">TeleRead</A>, which is a very active site covering ebook news. It's worth checking out.<BR/><BR/>MikeMichael Macehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146900166003471212006-05-06T00:22:00.000-07:002006-05-06T00:22:00.000-07:00More good comments. This is fun.Bob wrote:>>they ...More good comments. This is fun.<BR/><BR/><BR/><B>Bob wrote:</B><BR/><BR/><I>>>they are so anxious to lock down the DRM, they are willing to sacrifice ebook sales.</I><BR/><BR/>Good point.<BR/><BR/>I think the bottom line is, they're just scared. Publishers as a group are not early adopters of technology, and all this change scares them. They're afraid they'll catch Napster disease. Google's book search initiative didn't help matters.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Except a few like the Harry Potter author, maybe.</I><BR/><BR/>That reminds me of a story.<BR/><BR/>When I was at PalmSource, we collected hundreds and hundreds of stories from users about what they did with their handhelds. The diversity was deeply impressive.<BR/><BR/>One story we loved was an adult who wrote in saying that he loved reading the Harry Potter books on a handheld in the subway. He was embarrassed to be seen reading the books, and reading on the handheld meant no one could see what he was reading.<BR/><BR/>We all thought it was a cute story and wanted to publicize it. But then we realized that the books had to have been pirated, and we weren't comfortable publicizing that.<BR/><BR/>The lesson is not that a lot of books get pirated. It's that if you don't provide a product the way that people want it, they'll find a way to get it despite you.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>In ebooks, people are becoming used to a different type of quality than for pbooks.</I><BR/><BR/>I think that's a really good point. And it's not just ebooks driving the change in standards -- websites are doing it too. When you give people a choice between cheap and immediate vs. perfect and costly, they'll often go for the cheap one as long as the quality's not too bad. An occasional typo or boring formatting just doesn't matter enough to justify the higher price.<BR/><BR/>Anyone who shops at Wal-Mart knows what I'm talking about.<BR/><BR/><BR/><B>Trace wrote:</B><BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Assuming that the format issue isn't solved and I have to buy a unit with a proprietary format (like the sony reader), if I can see maybe 10 eBooks I like I would buy a unit.</I><BR/><BR/>Cool. I wish there were more people like you.<BR/><BR/>When I was at SoftBook, we had pretty well decided that our core customers needed to be book-reading enthusiasts. And they were very sensitive to the size and currency of the book library.<BR/><BR/>But if you're happy with a smaller selection of books, more power to you. Be sure to also check out the Philips ebook product when it ships in your part of the world.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>my central mystery is that it is so cheap to produce an eBook once the hard part (writing and typesetting) is done.</I><BR/><BR/>It's not as cheap as you would expect, especially if the publisher wants to apply full print-quality attention to detail. In that mindset, you have to check for very subtle typographic effects that interfere with readability. The process can get very tricky.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>As a publisher, why not just take a small risk and publish everything in ones catalog as eBooks (in all formats) and see what happens?</I><BR/><BR/>For the big publishers, I think it's just plain fear.<BR/><BR/><BR/><B>John wrote:</B><BR/><BR/><I>>>I cannot get you to 20% of the market, but I can get you to 10%....educational textbooks.</I><BR/><BR/>Very good point, and I agree with you. I'll cover that some more in my next post.Michael Macehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146888179700203162006-05-05T21:02:00.000-07:002006-05-05T21:02:00.000-07:00Excellent article. I cannot get you to 20% of the...Excellent article. <BR/><BR/>I cannot get you to 20% of the market, but I can get you to 10%....educational textbooks. <BR/><BR/>This is a $2B market and textbooks are not read like novels. Students read them a little a time. They can also be written a little a time an energized consortium of faculty could re-create the entire marketplace in a couple of years. In fact, Fred Beshears of Berkeley has been talking about just such a project. <BR/><BR/>See...<BR/>http://www.carnegiefoundation.org/perspectives/sub.asp?key=244&subkey=1599<BR/><BR/>There is an added advantage of getting students - who are already more technically literaate - used to the idea of ebooks - going on creating a demand market for ebooks in novels, etc. <BR/><BR/>The textbook industry is ripe for change due to edition-churn, updates and inflated prices ($100/textbook or $900/student/year)<BR/><BR/>Other relevant links...<BR/>Wikitextbooks - http://wikitextbook.co.uk/index.php/Main_Page<BR/><BR/>Vitalsource...www.vitalsource.com, <BR/><BR/>Fourteen40...www.fourteen40.com<BR/><BR/>...and too many other indicators that education is going to be the leading market segment in this revolution.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146860902321903072006-05-05T13:28:00.000-07:002006-05-05T13:28:00.000-07:00I've been wanting a book reader for quite some tim...I've been wanting a book reader for quite some time (years) and I've always held off for two major reasons. First I don't want to have a reader that is locked into a certain format. We need a standard, open format for the books and readers so we won't be locked into hardware by certain vendors. <BR/><BR/>Secondly (and this is related) I've been concerned about DRM. Right now I can lend, give or sell one of my books to someone. Will I be able to do that with an eBook? I'm not so sure. We all know that when you buy music from the iTunes store to play on your iPod, it is locked to that device. Will that happen with eBooks?<BR/><BR/>I'm not as concerned about content. Assuming that the format issue isn't solved and I have to buy a unit with a proprietary format (like the sony reader), if I can see maybe 10 eBooks I like I would buy a unit. I figure I could offset the risk of locking into a format enough that I could ride out the stretch before most books are produced in that format. If the hardware sells, the books should follow.<BR/><BR/>But my central mystery is that it is so cheap to produce an eBook once the hard part (writing and typesetting) is done. As a publisher, why not just take a small risk and publish everything in ones catalog as eBooks (in all formats) and see what happens?<BR/><BR/>Its a total mystery why it is taking so long to give the public something they clearly want.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11990204805709725942noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146860319822017042006-05-05T13:18:00.000-07:002006-05-05T13:18:00.000-07:00Some very interesting additional thoughts there, e...Some very interesting additional thoughts there, especially about the DRM issue. <BR/><BR/>"If you ask the publishers what level of DRM they need, you'll end up designing something grandiose like Microsoft's scheme. But in practical terms, all you really need is a social mechanism for identifying who's stealing books."<BR/><BR/>Excellent point! People who are determined to steal books have many avenues for that anyway, including physically scanned copies. But the average consumer would rather just pay a fair price for a convenient product. <BR/><BR/>But publishers seem to want to maximize profit per book sale, not overall revenues. Partly because they are protecting print sales, as you pointed out. But partly because they are so anxious to lock down the DRM, they are willing to sacrifice ebook sales. No to mention that if they have tight DRM, they can probably resell content to the poor consumer over and over again. <BR/><BR/>The gentler DRM would accomplish the same goals, but you have to convice the content owners... they are the ones that have to be satisfied first, not the customer. <BR/><BR/>Yet, what a waste to lock down the books so tightly. If you think about it, copying of DRM'd files by the average consumer is not based on whether or not the DRM is exotic or how well it's "locked down." In the end, it's based on whether or not there's a convenient program that does the DRM-breaking for the consumer, and I don't think that's technology based. It's motivationally based. People can break just about anything if they want to bad enough. (The point is that people don't, in general, really want to break DRM very much if it's bearable.) <BR/><BR/>In fact, I suspect that we have a DRM-breaking program for .lit and not eReader DRM partly because it's not really needed yet for eReader because the reader software is still available and decent, and most importantly, the DRM is not so intrusive. Of course, the fact that Microsoft is so "well hated" might have something to do with it also! ;)<BR/><BR/>"I get the feeling that the publishers are more concerned about tight DRM than most authors are."<BR/><BR/>Yes! Except a few like the Harry Potter author, maybe. There always seem to be two sorts of sellers. One type are those that hold tight to everything they have and want to squeeze the most out of it because who knows what the future brings. Legal avenues and DRM are a good way to hold on and protect. <BR/><BR/>And the other type are those that hold loosely what they have, aiming to innovate and bring the customer what they want, and continue to add value. They make their future by providing something people want, not by squeezing the coins out of their pocket almost against their will.<BR/><BR/>Similar to consultants. Some consultants want to charge for every single piece of code, home grown utility, or even ideas that can be expressed in a single sentence. They feel that their whole value is wrapped up in those things so they are careful to protect them. But the more successful and useful consultants are very open with those sorts of things, and gladly offer those one-minute solutions for free. They figure that the real worth they can offer is of ongoing value, and they find their revenues from happy customers because they continually apply their knowledge creatively to get things done. They don't have to nickle and dime you to death.<BR/><BR/>I guess that's a bit off track, but the point is that there are two general approaches to selling, and I think we are seeing that the paradigm for publishers is based on fear and tightly holding content. There are only a few lone voices like Cory and Mark Cuban and and handful of others that take the generous and yet successful "bring value" approach.<BR/><BR/>One more thought also occurs to me with regard to the whole ebook industry:<BR/><BR/>In ebooks, people are becoming used to a different type of quality than for pbooks. It's similar to how people are now becoming more accustomed to good music with lower quality production standards because of the increased availability of amateur bands and the lower quality encoding and playback used with many common mp3 players. But with ebooks, you have many who are gladly reading books (even from major ebook publishers) with scanning errors, terrible layout, maybe even text only.<BR/><BR/>Why is this important? Because it may remove one of the last remaining reasons for existance of the old guard publishers (and all the overhead) after we get to ebooks. <BR/><BR/>The main value coming from the publishing industry seem to be (following loosely your description, but "enhanced" a bit):<BR/>* Marketing and store placement - less important in the eBook world, and maybe handled by online book sellers that may not be associated with existing publishers<BR/>* Risk mitigation - up front money to get authors started on books, which can be handled by major online sellers or independent agents if they don't have to handle the editorial and production aspects<BR/>* Editor input and guidance, and professional layout and production, and other logistical support - This is probably one of the most talked about "values" of the publishing industry that distinguishes "good books" from the do-it-yourself-hacks. You hear about it all the time from publishers, and they are convinced that books might as well just disappear if you don't have it. Customers on the other hand, don't seem to care. Yet the publishing industry has a blind spot, because they are convinced that their work is so important that the customer wants it and needs it, and just doesn't realize it because he's so stupid!<BR/><BR/>But my thought here is that the consumer really and truly doesn't care very much about this, despite what the publishing industry tries to tell us. Amateur quality really is good enough for most mass market books. No amateur writers, but amateur editing and production qualtiy. <BR/><BR/>Maybe for special works like textbooks or reference works, and always for some of the cream of the crop elite books. But it's sort of a point of pride in the publishing industry that may have lost touch with reality. In general, I don't care if I read a best seller that's basically text-only without any special layouts. I don't care about the occassional misspelling or grammatical error. I don't care about a lot of things that are life and death to an editor and publisher. Do those things matter? Yes, I admit they do. But not so much. We are happy with good content in our novels. We even are becoming accustomed to those errors in our ebooks from major sellers. If I want great literature, I'll read the classics. If I want to have a quick fix, I'll read something to have fun or learn something quick, but I don't care too much how it's packaged as long as I can get what I need efficiently and enjoyably, and as much as top notch production quality might help, I don't really believe that I care that much about that kind of quality. I want an effective author and writer and topics I care about. Good enough for me, and good enough for 90% of us I'd say. That means top notch production and editorial efforts will become focused in other areas. Maybe some niche books, online newspapers and publications, etc. Or for the "sure thing" best sellers that make this overhead a smaller pctg of revenues. Who knows?<BR/><BR/>In a way that's sad that I'm predicting quality will suffer in mass market ebooks, but it can sure make the ebook industry a lot more efficient, and bring prices down drastically!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146811863150950972006-05-04T23:51:00.000-07:002006-05-04T23:51:00.000-07:00Wow, nice comments, Bob. Thoughts on a couple of ...Wow, nice comments, Bob. Thoughts on a couple of things...<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Because of this problem, many people resort to buying in .lit format (Microsoft Reader) which is one of the worst DRMs due to limited activations</I><BR/><BR/>I'm glad you brought up DRM. I ducked the whole DRM subject in my post, because it's ugly and complicated.<BR/><BR/>In my experience, the fears about DRM for ebooks are much greater than the actual problem is. If you ask the publishers what level of DRM they need, you'll end up designing something grandiose like Microsoft's scheme. But in practical terms, all you really need is a social mechanism for identifying who's stealing books.<BR/><BR/>I think the old Peanut Press approach of encoding the user's name into the book is a good one. That plus an occasional enforcement lawsuit would probably be good enough to intimidate most potential pirates -- as long as the prices for ebooks aren't set too high. If the publishers try to charge $20, then yeah there will be piracy no matter how complex the DRM scheme is.<BR/><BR/>I get the feeling that the publishers are more concerned about tight DRM than most authors are. A lot of the authors seem to be willing to take more piracy risk to get their books more broadly distributed. The Cory Doctorow essay that I linked to in my post is a good example.<BR/><BR/>Maybe the authors are less scared of piracy because they're not making much money from their books anyway. If the royalty rate went up, they might start to care about DRM more.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>The whole eBook vs pBook tipping point is not just about availability and trends. It's highly dependent on the eBook experience which is lacking right now.</I><BR/><BR/>Agreed, and I'll talk more about the upcoming ebook hardware in my next post. The point I was trying to make was this -- beter technology is a necessary but not sufficient condition to make ebooks take off. In Silicon Valley we tend to think the right device can overcome any barrier, but I <I>seriously</I> doubt it in this case. The SoftBook hardware was acceptable to a lot of people; it was the lack of a huge library of current books that killed us.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Has anyone looked at chaos theory in relation to social sites and product marketing?</I><BR/><BR/>Cool idea! I hadn't looked at it that way.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>We forget that the process of picking, acquiring, loading, and viewing a book is not inherantly as simple as an iPod, and until the supporting infrastructure and interfaces come, it is almost nightmarish for the novice non-tech user.</I><BR/><BR/>I agree completely. You have to work the whole solution if you want normal people to use your product.<BR/><BR/><BR/><B>Marty wrote:</B><BR/><BR/><I>>>I've got access to over 17,000 free project Gutenberg ebooks</I><BR/><BR/>I'm glad you mentioned Project Gutenberg. I first discovered them when I was at SoftBook, and I think what they're doing is very noble.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, a great library of classics isn't enough to drive the ebook adoption rate we need, but it's a good start. I think the more important thing is that their work is just intrinsically good for humanity.<BR/><BR/>More on this subject in my next post...Michael Macehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146783185872308742006-05-04T15:53:00.000-07:002006-05-04T15:53:00.000-07:00Excellent post as always, and on a great topic! On...Excellent post as always, and on a great topic! One of the best things about your perspective and comments is that it always proposes a nice framework for thinking about the situations, and gives new life to what has often been a tired subject.<BR/><BR/>A few of the things that come to mind after reading the article:<BR/><BR/>* Paperbacks, paperbacks, paperbacks!<BR/><BR/>I think this is where the mass market is for e-books. There surely are niche markets for reference works, and I do think they can be profitable, but as you say reference works are not likely to single-handedly determine the direction of e-publishing.<BR/><BR/>The great advantage of paperbacks in the mainstream is that people usually want to read it and then don't care as much about keeping it in their libraries. So DRM isn't a show stopper. It may prevent people from building up libraries in advance, but one by one it's no big deal. <BR/><BR/>On the other hand, it can be a real problem, though, for materials like Bible reference works. Those are preferably life long purchases, but DRM and reader lock-in produce the opposite effect.<BR/><BR/>I have that same concern with many of the books I've got in eReader format. I like eReader, but I don't want to lose all the content I have. I want to keep those books that I haven't read, as well as a few of my favorites that I have finished.<BR/><BR/>Because of this problem, many people resort to buying in .lit format (Microsoft Reader) which is one of the worst DRMs due to limited activations, and customer support problems if the activations are lost. People don't buy in that format to use Microsoft Reader (which also is not on PalmOS). They buy it because they can break the DRM and then feel more secure that the book is theirs long term. I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying it's a superior solution for the user at the moment, so it's a common approach by the savvy user. Fortunately, those are generally serious ebook buffs, not pirates.<BR/><BR/>* eBooks vs pBooks<BR/><BR/>In your analysis, there's not a lot of focus on the technology (you can't focus on everything), but I think the technology is a big factor. The whole eBook vs pBook tipping point is not just about availability and trends. It's highly dependent on the eBook experience which is lacking right now. It's probably better on handhelds than laptops or desktops, and you can have the books with you at all times, but it's still on a marginal quality and tiny display. UMPC might help a bit if it ever catches on, but won't make a big splash in eBooks for a while.<BR/><BR/>* eBook marketing is like music marketing<BR/><BR/>Everything you've discussed previously about how music gets known and how it will be found in the future is probably very similar to what we'll see in eBooks. Amazon and eReader.com and best seller lists and retail placements are not always going to be driving demand. Yet, maybe the sellers will keep a lot of influence at point of sale. On the whole, really good books will rise to the top with social engineering sites. (BTW, I break a bit with tradition and like to call social sites like social networking and social filtering by that name because it points out in dramatic fashion that the rules and operation of the site have a lot to do with the outcome of the recommendations. They don't just neutrally present the will and preferences of the masses, and we are being incredibly naiive if we think so. They shape the results by the rules and the way they approach the users, and often they have a dog in the race also.)<BR/><BR/>* Has anyone looked at chaos theory in relation to social sites and product marketing?<BR/><BR/>It seems almost random sometimes when we look at what becomes popular. It's hard to tell if just the right people talked to the right friends, or the right post was made somewhere, or if it was perfect marketing, or if something caught on because it was just that good. Who was that guy on the TV singing show that did the horrible rendition of the Rikki Martin song, but got famous from it?! <BR/><BR/>For both music and eBooks, we will have all those nice sites helping us find what people like. But sometimes I wonder -- are very tiny events able to sway the collective popularity of content, the same way a single butterfly or traffic light across town can significantly affect traffic flows?<BR/><BR/>* DRM and eBook technology has a huge FUD factor right now. <BR/><BR/>In mp3s, once people started ripping CDs and buying music online and using iPods, the word spread, and people didn't have to be innovators anymore to enjoy mp3s like we pda fans have been doing for years before the iPod. Same thing for eBooks, but there's a huge difference... no ready-made source of content already available. You can't scan books easily like you can rip CDs. About the closest you can get is Project Gutenberg.<BR/><BR/>Ebooks really have to get much simpler to use before the public will want them. And even then, they need to have their neighbors (the early adopters) show them how to do it.<BR/><BR/>* The eBook experience needs to be better.<BR/><BR/>People are going to miss holding and smelling real paper if all they get with eBooks is a headache, tired eyes, and the same sort of pain-in-the-neck that keeps them away from spending their spare time on the computer or pda.<BR/><BR/>Displays and nice standalone devices are coming and will push this tipping point that much closer, but I don't think they take all the frustration and required learning curve away. <BR/><BR/>Plus, what are the additional features that people are getting for all their trouble? Searchability and large libaries in their hands? I don't think that's enough. The experience itself has to be pleasant, simple, and trouble-free. With books people don't necessarily immediately know what they want to read like they know what they want to listen to. Part of the book choosing experience is walking through a bookstore (brick and mortar or online). It's not that hard to pick music because you browse your favorite artists or the latest album you already know about. So the ebook thing is hard even before you talk about getting the book on the device!<BR/><BR/>Now don't get me wrong. I love ebooks, especially on my handheld because I can read whenever I want, and I like the choice of fonts and being able to read in low light, etc. E-ink book devices are going to be nice in the future also (if they don't just become part of another convergent device like a UMPC, that is.) I think it's the only way to go. I just think that we "experts" tend to forget how intimidating the steps are for a non-techie. We forget that the process of picking, acquiring, loading, and viewing a book is not inherantly as simple as an iPod, and until the supporting infrastructure and interfaces come, it is almost nightmarish for the novice non-tech user.<BR/><BR/>* Old non-copyrighted eBooks are great reading.<BR/><BR/>Not everyone likes the classics, but it's a big factor in differentiating the music and book markets. Some of the best books are the old stuff. You need to be a bit more sophisticated or educated or at least diligent to get through some of them, but they're great. Old music (and movies) are, well, either non-existant, very bad, or still under copyright.<BR/><BR/>That means that there's a huge niche market for people wanting to read public domain ebooks. I believe that it really affects our estimation of the future in odd ways. We often think it's a sign of ebook adoption, but in fact it's a misleading indicator because it's not the same market that leads to the tipping point.<BR/><BR/>As always, I'm typing this off the top of my head, so hope it is at least clear enough to be somewhat readable. Hope this adds some interesting thoughts to the discussion. Can't wait for your next entry. What a great job you are doing with this blog. I'm sure that your following will grow and grow until you're consistently viewed as one of the big guys, not just due to your role in the mobile industry, but because people in the popular business press find you an interesting thinker and communicator. Maybe that butterfly will flap at just the right time and your book will be a best seller at the end of this exercise. Thanks for sharing it with all of us!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146778619686548502006-05-04T14:36:00.000-07:002006-05-04T14:36:00.000-07:00Good comments, guys!Bruce wrote:>>Being an aspirin...Good comments, guys!<BR/><BR/><BR/><B>Bruce wrote:</B><BR/><BR/><I>>>Being an aspiring *book* author, you seem to focus on the mass market for books.</I><BR/><BR/>Books have always been the Holy Grail for the electronic publishing world. But in the next post I'll talk a bit about electronic newspapers and magazines.<BR/><BR/>Also, I had to focus the post down on something. It took forever just to write the ebook thing; if I had tried to do all of publishing I might not have finished before June (and June of what year, I'm not sure).<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Why would *anyone* pay hardcover prices for an ebook?</I><BR/><BR/>Most people absolutely would not, which is why it's distressing to see many publishers insisting on charging hardcover prices for ebook editions of their products. That drove me nuts at SoftBook. <BR/><BR/>I know why they're doing it -- they want to protect their retailers. But that kind of tells you where their priorities are.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Why not start the discussion by looking at ebooks as a replacement for paperbacks, or perhaps even certain types of paperbacks?</I><BR/><BR/>Cool, this is the sort of discussion I was hoping we'd get. There are a huge number of permutations on the market that are worth exploring. The more I think about it, the more I cook up.<BR/><BR/>I did mention the possibility of the ebook taking the place of the paperback, but I didn't spend much time on it. I could see that approach working from a customer perspective, but it's hard to figure out how it would work for the publishers. Once we reached critical mass on a paperback ebook business model, there's no way an author would accept getting only 8% of the revenue from their paperback editions -- especially an author who's popular enough to merit a hardcover release. So they'll want to bypass the publisher for the paperback edition. How many publishers can survive on only hardcover revenue? And how many bookstores?<BR/><BR/>Definitely some of them will survive -- I think there will always be a market for words on paper. But my gut is that when ebooks do hit the tipping point, the current book infrastructure will fall pretty fast and hard. I think the current model in which the publisher carefully manages the hardcover release first, and then the softcover, is going to be very hard to maintain among all the flying wreckage.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Doctors and lawyers may like to carry around an extensive library</I><BR/><BR/>That one's already happening, although in many cases the content is not even labeled an "ebook." It's just reference information that you can carry on your device. ePocrates is a good example.<BR/><BR/>But because they're niches, these wins don't really affect the book market as a whole. Even if you add up all the niches, I think they're not enough to get ebook readers into the hands of 20% of book buyers, which is the goal I'm shooting for.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Maybe there is a fortune to be made in 1-hour book publishers?</I><BR/><BR/>Maybe, and I think you're asking the right sort of questions. I'm a little jaded (maybe too jaded) about the print on demand thing because it has been talked about as a panacea for years, and yet it hasn't had nearly the sort of impact people predicted (sounds a lot like e-books themselves). <BR/><BR/>When I try to think through the scenario of a bookstore with an in-store press that turns out a book while you wait, it reminds me of some of the very early automobile designs that had a fake horse's head on the front of the car, so they'd blend better with he existing carriages. I wonder if sometimes we aren't trying desperately to use technology fixes to patch up a system that's fundamentally obsolete once ebooks finally take off.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>Regarding independant booksellers and their role in discovering new authors, some of that void is being filled by bloggers</I><BR/><BR/>Yeah, baby!<BR/><BR/>Here's a thought experiment -- if a blogger is playing the role of a bookseller in finding and publicizing great new books, is there a way for the author to reward that person (similar to an Amazon referral fee, but from the author)? Or would that inevitably corrupt the bloggers?<BR/><BR/><BR/><B>Ben wrote:</B><BR/><BR/><I>>>I switched my long standing paper subscriptions of SF magazines Asimov's and Analog from paper to e-format through Fictionwise.</I><BR/><BR/>I did something similar, although in my case I bought the discounted yearlong compilations of the magazines. Note to the magazines -- I was not a subscriber before that, so your e-distribution got you an incremental customer.<BR/><BR/>I found that the magazine compilations are great for plane flights and whenever I'm trapped someplace boring.<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>>>My biggest disappointment right now is in the lack of innovation in the main ebook reader applications.... This really bugs me, since because of book DRM, this is the only reader I can use for many of my titles, and its limitations have discouraged me from buying more books in that format.</I><BR/><BR/>I haven't run into problems with the client, probably because I'm clinging to an old Clie that still has more features than almost any other device on the market. But you raise one of he important fears that people have about ebooks -- what happens if my supplier goes out of business and I'm stuck with ebooks that I can no longer read?Michael Macehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966107280587843091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17898384.post-1146774264891308262006-05-04T13:24:00.000-07:002006-05-04T13:24:00.000-07:00Hey, Mike. I've been an ebook fan for several yea...Hey, Mike. I've been an ebook fan for several years, and last fall, I switched my long standing paper subscriptions of SF magazines Asimov's and Analog from paper to e-format through Fictionwise. I've probably been about 50% paper/50% e-book in my fiction purchases in the last few years.<BR/><BR/>My biggest disappointment right now is in the lack of innovation in the main ebook reader applications. I primarily use eReader Pro on my Treo 650; it has a very nice basic feature set. However, it's never implemented good support for reading a large library of books off of a SD card, it's support for fonts is pretty limited, and the UI hasn't been adjusted to handle five-way navigation. Basically, aside from a few small bug fixes, the app's been abandoned since PeanutPress was sold to Motricity. This really bugs me, since because of book DRM, this is the only reader I can use for many of my titles, and its limitations have discouraged me from buying more books in that format.UnwiredBenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17890309289960324766noreply@blogger.com