The Tech Industry and the Return of the Zero-Sum Game

Summary. In the tech industry we worship “disruption,” but to most people it’s a dirty word. In a world where insecurity and mistrust in institutions are on the rise, tech is increasingly out of step with the values of the public. This puts our companies at risk of hostile regulation and customer backlashes. We need to change our attitude and our behavior, or our industry may be seriously damaged in the years to come.

The situation: No more win-win.

Across many countries, and across the political spectrum, we are seeing a dramatic erosion in peoples' faith in win-win situations. Compared to the past couple of decades, there's less willingness to believe that the benefits of any change will outweigh the costs. Along with that, there's a general feeling of mistrust in institutions. Many people on both ends of the political spectrum believe the political and economic system is being gamed by insiders to the detriment of everyone else.

Those feelings have always been present in our culture to some extent, but today the feelings are very strong, and what's especially unusual is that fear of the future and mistrust in institutions are rising together. People are simultaneously afraid of change and unwilling to trust those who are supposed to protect them from its problems.

That's what gave us President Trump (link). People call him a businessman, but he actually practices a very particular type of business: He's a deal-maker from the real estate industry. If you've ever dealt with real estate developers (and I have) you know they live in a world dominated by zero-sum negotiations in which one side gains and the other one loses -- the taller your building gets, the more shade it casts on the neighbors. For one person to win, the other has to lose.

Mr. Trump is a perfect embodiment of the zero-sum attitude that's rising in society today. The attitude is showing up more and more frequently even in the supposedly-liberal press, but most of us in tech don't see it. We still believe in win-win situations. We have faith that the world will be better for the changes we create, and we expect that to be obvious to everyone else.

Silicon Valley is like a hothouse full of orchids in the middle of a blizzard. Warmed by our stock options and VC pitches, and insulated by the buzz of our fans on social media, we often fail to listen to the people out in the cold.

For at least a year I've seen a trend in the general press toward skeptical, if not downright hostile, coverage of leading tech companies. Airbnb and Uber/Lyft are prime examples. They're poster children for disruptive change, and increasingly I think the general press is covering the damage they cause far more than the benefits.

That's understandable. Among all the industries being disrupted at the moment, traditional journalism is one of the hardest hit. When reporters see their own careers threatened, can you really blame them when they show sympathy for other people in the same boat?

For example, in the Los Angeles Times, coverage of Uber and Lyft has focused very heavily on their damage to traditional taxi companies, with much less attention on their benefits for the average citizen.

An article in April 2016, headlined "Uber and Lyft have devastated L.A.'s taxi industry," (link) did a pretty thorough job of highlighting the economic pain being felt by taxi drivers in Los Angeles, but said next to nothing about the benefits of ride-hailing.

The taxi drivers' pain is real, and I don't want to dismiss it. But anyone who's lived in LA can tell you that taxi service there has always been dysfunctional: notoriously unreliable, slow, and expensive. If ever an industry deserved to be disrupted, the LA taxi industry is it.

Part of the challenge for the ride-hailing companies is that their benefits are very diffuse -- they make it a bit more convenient for lots of people to get around the city -- but the pain they cause is very localized and visible: Working class taxi drivers who can't make ends meet. Balanced coverage would talk about the costs and benefits of ride-hailing, and would explore ways to offset the pain for those who are on the losing side. But that balance is often missing.

A couple of other examples:

--A column in the NY Times detailed government efforts to regulate what it called the "frightful five:" Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Google/Alphabet (link). The fact that the Times' tech columnist chose the word "frightful" to describe the nation's most successful consumer tech companies says a lot, but the column added to the problem by quoting academics who fear the companies' power. Did you know Amazon is about to destroy the nation-state? Dang! There was zero effort to describe the benefits those companies produce, or the consumer harm that could be caused by regulation of them.

--A ferocious column in the Guardian declared that the tech industry is destroying democracy (link)

--In a similar vein, a column in the NY Times credited tech with creating Donald Trump (link).

--This graphic on the front page of summed it up nicely:

The most disturbing thing to me is that the articles are becoming more and more shrill as time goes on. This is creating a toxic atmosphere for technology companies. Our industry is all about the benefits of change. For us, "disruption" is a positive thing. We welcome competition, because we assume that when a company or industry is destroyed, the new one that replaces it will be even better.

Our attitude is out of sync with the rest of the world. Our optimism makes us sound callous and arrogant. When we preach the benefits of something new, many people are reluctant to believe us, and some search avidly for any potential downside. The next step will be for them to actively oppose us, as is already happening to Uber and Airbnb.

In other words, tech companies no longer get the benefit of the doubt. Instead, any disruption we cause is likely to be assumed guilty until proven innocent.

What to do: It's time to eat humble pie

Om Malik recently wrote a commentary in the New Yorker suggesting that we in tech need to get outside the latte bubble and talk with normal people (link). That's a great beginning, but there's a lot more we need to do:

First step: Think. We should take these criticisms to heart. As a start, it you haven't done so already, read the Guardian article I linked above and think about it. In my opinion, the author is mistaking a transition for a collapse, but the important thing is for you to decide what you think, and then for all of us to have a rational conversation about it.

That sort of sober, logical discussion is very hard to do when everyone's frightened and reacting emotionally. So we need to drain some of the emotion out of the discussion of tech:

Shut up about destroying things. The tech industry thrives on negative energy; we love to brag about the brain-dead products and  industries that we're going to destroy. It's an old habit we picked up from Steve Jobs, and it doesn't serve us well in the new era. That sort of talk needs to stop. The only person who thinks disruption is sexy is your VC, and the only place for discussing it is a private presentation to investors.

Don't be a jerk. The culture in many successful tech companies isn't exactly compassionate. We tend to compete hard and talk bluntly, and sometimes we celebrate companies that will do anything to win. That leads to arrogant exec comments in public and employee behavior that skirts the edges of legality. When everyone loved the tech industry, that sort of behavior was often forgiven. But today it's more likely to get a company permanently branded as untrustworthy, and therefore in need of regulation. And it hurts the rest of us because it puts the whole industry in a bad light.

Don't overpromise. Hype is another long-time tech industry tradition, born of our own enthusiasm for our products. We sell the vision we're trying to build rather than its implementation today. But in the current environment, that comes across as lying. Every time we do it, there's damage to not just the company that exaggerates, but to the trustability of the tech industry in general.

Case in point: the term "artificial intelligence," which our industry applies to a technology that, when you strip away all the hype, basically consists of high-speed pattern matching. Are there potential job losses created by that pattern matching? Yes indeed. But the same thing happened with every technology breakthrough since the steam engine. You'll need to make a really strong case that this time is any different from the others. So far I have yet to see that case. But the term "AI" makes regular people think that we're about to create malevolent super-intelligent Skynet robots that crush humanity underfoot. That's not possible within the practical planning horizon of anyone who's not a singularity honk – and if Moore's Law continues to decelerate, it might not be possible ever. Meanwhile, our language terrorizes people and interferes with the real, rational discussion we need to have about productivity vs. job loss.

If you want a simpler example, consider the damage done when Tesla named its driver assist feature "Autopilot." That term has a very specific meaning to the public, and Tesla didn't deliver on that meaning. Every time we do something like that, we say to the public (and government) that we can't be trusted and need to be regulated.

Speaking of regulations, we need to make friends in the government(s). As a small-government guy, I dream of a world where companies are free to innovate, and the market alone chooses winners and losers. We don't live in that world. Government regulation is a fact of life in modern society, and in the current atmosphere, the more we disrupt things, the more we're going to be regulated.

So we have two choices: We can either partner with government, and get regulations we can live with; or we can ignore government and get rolled. That doesn't mean we all need to turn into influence-buying pond scum. Engaging with the government means being up front with regulators about any problems you create, and being willing to engage with them on solutions. I know from personal experience that most government regulators mean well and are just trying to enforce the law. They usually don't have a deep understanding of tech, though. So getting to them early, being honest, and sharing information freely can help them understand the difference between reasonable and unreasonable regulation.

This takes time and commitment, a price that most tech companies, especially startups, are not willing to pay. This is a case where the investment community should step in. The safety of your investments depends on good relations with the right regulators. You should be cultivating contacts in the government (national and local), and you should be teaching your portfolio companies how to use them, just the same as you teach them how to do Facebook advertising or agile product development.

There's a separate issue of lobbying politicians (as opposed to regulators). Some industries have become so enmeshed in government that they see political influence-peddling as a primary means of competing (aerospace, telecom, etc). I am not suggesting that we join that group. The thing that motivates all politicians is getting re-elected. If you're not going to fund their election campaigns, the key to influencing them is to have a lot of public support. You don't have to make huge campaign contributions if you have a lot of customers who love you and will speak up for you. That brings us to the next issue...

Measure and document your benefits to society. It may be obvious to you that your company produces a net benefit to society, but you should always assume that it's not obvious to anyone else. The press will focus on easily found victims: the mom-and-pop retail store put out of business by an online competitor, rather than the benefits of lower prices for everyone else in society. It's your job to document and communicate the good you do for society, preferably with charismatic examples of happy customers you've helped. If you can't find those, you need to get a better marketing team, and in the meantime you should hire a consultant to do a good economic analysis of the your benefits to society as a whole.

Take responsibility for the problems you cause. If there is a group that's hurt by your disruption, be sympathetic to them. Can you do something to ease their transition? Are there ways society can help them? Get out in front of the problem and help to solve it. If nothing else, don't act in denial of the downside; instead, make clear that the upside is better.

When we've done all of this – when we've calmed the panic and taken responsibility for the messes we create – then we can start rationally crafting a system in which we're allowed to innovate because the world trusts that we won't be irresponsible about it. That probably sounds like a tall order, but really I don't think we have any other choice. It's possible the public mood will improve dramatically on its own in the near future, but I doubt it. Big public swings between pessimism and optimism tend to last a decade or two, longer than the lifetime of most tech companies. For safety's sake, we should view the current situation as permanent and adapt ourselves to it, rather than huddling in the greenhouse and hoping the storm will pass.

What do you think? Am I overstating the problem? Am I wrong to believe that innovation is generally a force for good? Does the tech industry need to change in other ways? I welcome your comments.

Why Trump Won: Fairness and Change

Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election because of two issues: Deep concerns about the fairness of American government, and an intense desire for change. That's a different story that we've heard from many commentators (link), but I'm confident in my opinion because I heard it directly from Trump voters. Below I'll share their voices with you, and tell you how I found them.

This post grew out of an experiment I ran at UserTesting (my employer). I wanted to see if our technology could be used to gather public opinion info. I was pleased with the results, and wanted to share them. At a time when most people are focused on talking, think of this post as an opportunity to listen, and maybe get a better idea of what the whole election meant.

Background. Like many people in Silicon Valley, I was surprised and worried by the recent election of Donald Trump. I didn't understand why so many of my fellow citizens would vote for someone who had such obvious personal flaws. There were plenty of explanations in print and online, but most of them came from the same people who predicted the election wrong. I didn't trust their analysis; I wanted to hear from Trump voters directly.

Fortunately, I had a way to do that. UserTesting runs a system to give companies fast user feedback on websites and apps. You come to us, describe the demographic you want and the tasks you want them to perform, and we recruit normal people to record themselves doing the task. The whole process is automated and extremely fast – you start getting videos back in as little as one to two hours.

I figured I could probably use the same system to run interviews with voters. Instead of testing a website or app, the participants would just answer written questions about the election.

What I learned. I reached out to Trump voters the day after the election, and within a few hours I had all the responses. As you'd expect, there were many different motivations, but I think two threads connected the Trump voters:

--They feel the system in the US is unfair, and is being exploited by people who cheat on the rules.

--They felt that Donald Trump, as an outsider, was the best bet to change the system. Hillary Clinton's long history in government worked against her with many of these voters, because it meant she was seen as a product of the system rather than a change agent.

Trump stood for change. Clinton stood for continuity. Change won.

Don't take my word for it. Below are recordings of the Trump voters, explaining the decision in their own words. First there's a sampler with highlights chosen by me, followed by the full recordings of each interview, so you can judge for yourself. A few notes:

--To protect the privacy of the participants, I did not record their faces, and I have removed any references to their location. All you'll get is a black screen and their voices.

--The participants came from all over the country, and range in age from their 20s to their 60s.

--There are nine recordings. Before anyone objects, I know that's not enough for a statistically significant sample. But statistically significant surveys failed us during the election; do you really want another one? These recordings are more like a focus group, except it was completed in hours instead of weeks, each interview was separate, and the questions were written. So there's no groupthink and no moderator bias. This sort of research won't tell you the exact percentage of people who hold a particular view, but it's excellent for understanding why they think as they do, which is what I wanted.

Here's my highlight reel of Trump voters talking about their choice:

Other issues: What's the mandate?  The full interviews are much richer than my summary, and I encourage you to listen to them. Here are some of the issues that stood out to me:

--The vote was a very difficult decision for some of them. I was humbled by the amount of thought they put into it.

--Some were motivated by intense distrust or hostility toward Hillary Clinton.

--Some were motivated by opposition to abortion.

--There was not a huge amount of hostility to immigration in and of itself. Some of the participants went out of their way to acknowledge the contribution of immigrants. What bothered many of them was illegal immigration, because that was viewed as cheating. Sometimes that was paired with concerns about citizens who cheat on government services. It's the fairness aspect that bothers them: "I'm working hard to make ends meet; it's unfair when others don't follow the rules."

--Although I didn't ask about it, several people mentioned health care costs. They said health insurance prices have gone up dramatically in the last few years, despite President Obama's reforms. In fact, some blamed him for the rise in premiums.

--There was a lot of desire for reconciliation with the part of the country that voted for Clinton. Some of the Trump voters went out of their way to say that they want more cooperation in the country, more equality, and less racial tension.

Overall, I think it's fair to say that the election was a mandate for dramatic change in the system and for increased fairness. That's especially vivid when you think how close Bernie Sanders, another advocate of change, came to the nomination on the Democratic side.

I don't think the election was necessarily a mandate for every other proposal that was floated during the election. In the recordings you'll even hear some Trump voters scoffing about the border wall, and saying they don't want Roe vs. Wade overturned.

I think the election result was a cry for help from people who thought Trump was worth the risk. As one woman put it: "I decided to go with Trump...because I thought maybe he could make a change and he could make a difference, and I am praying that I am right."

You're not the only one, sister.

Here are the full interviews:

What do you think? I'm going to take a chance and leave comments open. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the interviews and what they say to you. But please don't vent, and don't criticize the interview participants. They had the courage to share their thoughts candidly, and deserve to be treated with respect.

PS: Although UserTesting allowed me to do this research, I did it on my own time, because I wanted to understand the election, and I was curious to see if our tool could be used this way. I used personal time to edit the videos, which is why you're seeing this several weeks after the election.

PPS: If you're wondering why I put a political post on a technology blog, stay tuned. There is a connection, which I'll explain in future posts.